15190 N Cotton Ln, Surprise, AZ 85388

Retail · Surprise · Phoenix metro, AZ

One of 354 reachable retail buildings in Surprise. Larger than 83% of retail buildings in Surprise (median 7,000 SF), derived from assessor records.

County gross building area
25,037 SF, Maricopa County Assessor
Lot size
94,156 SF, Maricopa County Assessor
Year built
2016, Maricopa County Assessor
Stories
1, Maricopa County Assessor
Predominant use
Store Front Commercial Bldg, Maricopa County Assessor
Assessed value
$3,976,671, per the Maricopa County Assessor (not a market appraisal)
Assessed value per building SF
$158.83/SF, derived from assessor records
Building area / lot
0.27, derived from assessor records
Vintage
2010s vintage
County use code
STORE FRONT COMMERCIAL BLDG

Nearby comparable buildings

Same building type, by distance. Assessor facts only; not an opinion of value.

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Sale history and market context

MakeMe Estimate: $5.26M (estimated market value), with a likely range of $4.2M to $6.24M (half of recent verified sales in this segment landed inside that range). Computed as the county's full cash value of $3,976,671 times a 1.32 market ratio, measured from 3891 verified arm's-length sale prices vs county values (retail sales in Surprise, through 2026-06-29). Not an appraisal. How this estimate works.

lower confidence: 4 comparable sales within 3 miles; nearest 0 mi. This property type carries wider measured error; treat the estimate as a starting point.

Comparable sales used as evidence

Recorded arm's-length sales of similar buildings nearby; nearer and more recent sales rank first. Buyer and seller names are withheld. Get this data via API.

Market context: Retail in Surprise

median verified sale $592.59/SF over the trailing 24 months; 6 sales in the last 12 months and 12 in 24 (newest verified sale 2026-04); the middle 80% of recent sales traded at 0.72x to 1.63x their county full cash value, median 1.33x (12 sales with usable county values).

  • 2022: $483.85/SF median (13 sales)
  • 2023: $299.66/SF median (7 sales)
  • 2025: $592.59/SF median (4 sales)

This estimate sits at 1.32x county full cash value, the 50th percentile of those recent sale premiums.

Computed from 143 verified arm's-length sales in Maricopa County public records (12 in the trailing 24 months). Free public records. Not an appraisal.

Last sold: 2016-10-01 for $6,458,000 (recorded arm's-length sale).

Current ownership dates to 2016 (about 10 years) per recorded transfers.

Source: Maricopa County recorded sales extract; buyer and seller shown only when a company or organization. Individual names are withheld.

Value over time

$0$2M$4M$6M$8M20262027$5.26M$3.98MCounty assessed valueMakeMe Estimate range

Dark line: county assessed value per Maricopa County tax rolls. Blue line: our estimate; dashed years are a modeled backcast built from recorded arm's-length sales in the building's segment, not estimates published at the time, and years without enough sales stay unmodeled. The shaded range is the model's measured error band; about half of verified sales in the segment land inside it. Diamonds: recorded arm's-length sales. Not an appraisal. How this estimate works.

Land, site, and value history

Assessed value moved from $3,974,146 (2026) to $3,976,672 (2027), up 0% over 1 years, per county tax rolls. The 2027 roll splits $3,976,672 into $1,069,400 land and $2,907,271 improvements.